Rate Cuts Expected from Fed, ECB in Crucial Week - What It Means for Global Economy?

Aquib Nawab


Credits: Corporate finance institute

1. Final Rates

This week, major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, are set to make their final rate decisions of the year, raising questions about potential rate cuts in early 2024.

Credits: onewelcome

Credits: fairobserver

2. Key Central Bank Meetings

In this critical week, central banks like the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Norway's Norges Bank will all hold meetings.

3. Expectations for Rate Decisions

Market participants overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates at 5.25%-5.50%. Traders are also pricing in a 25 basis point cut as early as March next year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Credits: Canva

Credits: Canva

4. Inflation Concerns

One of the significant factors driving central bank decisions is inflation, which is moving away from its highest levels in decades.

5. Market Expectations vs. Fed's Stance

Market expectations for rate cuts diverge from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent statements. Powell cautioned against speculating on policy easing, creating a divergence in expectations.

Credits: The Wall Street Journal

Credits: npr

6. Powell's Perspective

Powell believes that current policy is in "restrictive territory" and that the risks of doing too much or too little are closely balanced. The pace of future rate changes will depend on various economic factors.

7. Anticipating the Fed's Decision

Market participants are bracing for the Federal Reserve's decision. Sam Zief, head of global FX strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, suggests that the Fed's statement may lack clarity regarding the pace and scale of future interest rate changes.

Credits: The Digital Banker

Credits: our.today

8. ECB's Role and Challenges

The European Central Bank (ECB) faces challenges, primarily related to inflation. Eurozone inflation, which exceeded 10% last year, has now dropped to 2.4% in November, closer to the ECB's 2% target.

9. Timing of ECB Rate Cuts

Deutsche Bank has brought forward the timing of the first ECB rate cut to April, citing recent inflation data and official commentary. There is also a "significant risk" of a rate cut as early as March, according to some economists.

Credits: The CEO Views

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